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mehr als 1000 Beiträge seit 25.12.2019

Alles bekannte Fakten....

Ignatius schrieb am 25.02.2020 02:29:

Ein user Kommentar auf slashdot, der das Corona-Virus mit der Grippe vergleicht, die dzt. bekannten Fakten gut zusammenfasst und ein sehr düsteres Bild zeichnet.

The virulence (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated between 1.4-6.49, with a mean estimate of 3.28 . This mean estimate is much higher than the seasonal flu, which has an R0 of 1.3 . What this means is that SARS-CoV-2 spreads significantly faster than the seasonal flu.

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of SARS-CoV-2 is at least 2-3% . This is 20-30 times higher than the CFR of the season flu, which is below 0.1% .

SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted without the infected showing any symptoms . This makes it much more difficult to control.

Roughly 20% of SARS-CoV-2 infections result in serious symptoms that require medical intervention . This is more than 10 times the hospitalization rate of the seasonal flu.

Symptoms from SARS-CoV-2 can persist over a month compared to the seasonal flu where symptoms typically tend to clear after 5 days.

There is no vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 whereas people regularly get annual flu shots.

There is no herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 which means that it can theoretically infect the entire population. See, for example, a Korean psychiatric department where the virus infected 99/102 people.

Now consider the multiplicative effect that all of these attributes have for the virus. Compared to the seasonal flu, SARS-CoV-2 (1) spreads faster; (2) kills far more; (3) is harder to control; (4) requires use of far more medical resources; (5) for far longer a period of time; (6) has no effective treatment; and (7) can infect entire populations.

These factors mean that SARS-CoV-2, if left unchecked, is far more likely to overwhelm a country's medical infrastructure. Additionally, when medical infrastructure is overwhelmed, the CFR will skyrocket because we know that 20% of cases require medical intervention.

It doesn't take a genius to piece it all together. This virus is potentially devastating if containment measures fail. Far worse than the seasonal flu.



Solange deutsche Qualitätsmedien aber weiter Ihre Geschichte von alles halb so wild verbreiten, wird es auch genügend Hochbegabte geben, die dir erzählen eine Grippe wäre schlimmer.

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